Tag Archive 'Oil'

Jan 21 2009

Emerging Markets: A Blunt Reminder

I was surfing my regular news sites this morning, when I came across the following article on BBC News:

Obama speech censored in China.”

Authorities didn’t like Obama’s references to communism and silent dissent, according to the article. And certain parts were omitted from Chinese translations, like the following:

In “Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions,” the word communism was removed for Chinese translations.

And “To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history.” This sentence was deleted entirely.

It’s hard not to take offense to China deleting whole sections of our new president’s first speech. But it also serves as a blunt reminer…

As the world becomes an ever-flatter place, and emerging markets gain ground and find an equal spot at the table, it’s easy to forget that there are real differences in ideology in the world… And that those differences aren’t just limited to religious fanatics hunkered down on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan; or a lone group of political reformists on some secluded compound in Montana. They’re engrained in the policies of some of our biggest trading partners, and some of the biggest economies in the world.

China is the largest holder of U.S. debt in the world, with $681.9 billion by the end of November 2008. That’s an increase of 48.6% over November 2007’s debt.

In fact, our debt to all other countries jumped by 32.2% in that same timeframe. But our debt to oil exporters jumped 43.5%…

As President Obama takes office, will the world work through these differences? Or will they lead to an increase in strained relations? There is no doubt that we are dealing with fundamental differences in entire systems… It will take compromise without compromising on our values.

Is that even possible?

I welcome your comments, and also, since I’m not a fan of censorship, here’s a link to President Obama’s speech, and here’s a translator for our Chinese friends… Choose English to Chinese in the drop-down menu.

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Jan 13 2009

Mounting Tensions: Ukraine and Gaza

The two problems we’ve been focusing on this past week both had false endings.

Last week, we were told that Israel and Gaza were talking about a cease-fire. Now, news reports have more Israeli troops pushing into Gaza City. More than 90,000 people have left their homes, and an estmated 900 people have died in the conflict.

We were also expecting Russia to begin shipping natural gas supplies through Ukraine again this morning. That hasn’t happened either. Russia is now claiming that Ukraine is purposefully blocking supplies. Hundreds of thousands of people have been without gas for a full week.

So, what happens next? Some analysts are saying the Israeli-Palestine conflict could go on for some time. But some Gaza survivors have been without water for four days and the humanitarian situation is worsening by the minute.

Russia will only begin pumping large amounts of natural gas if EU monitors determine that Ukraine isn’t stealing any for domestic consumption. This test of the taps has put the “truce” back at square one.

Natural gas sold on the NYMEX has been dropping for the past five trading days. But natural gas sold on London’s ICE ended higher today. The spread between WTI oil and ICE Brent crude oil is about $6.50, most likely due to these two conflicts.

So Europe is paying more for oil and gas as Russia and Ukraine lock horns, and as Israel continues to pound the Gaza Strip. We’re just starting to get into the middle of winter, too.

Yesterday, I told you Prague was going to hit an overnight low of 15 degreed F. Right now, it’s 9:00pm, and it feels like 12 degrees F.

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Dec 29 2008

Middle East Mayhem Mires Markets

I’d better change that to “Some Markets.”

While the U.S. markets are all jittery, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange actually ticked higher today. You wouldn’t know that for all the news, though.

Apparently, folks are worried that this three-day crisis between Israel and Hamas will disrupt oil supplies. Now, the oil exporting countries must be smiling at this… First, Israel and Palestine aren’t exporting oil anywhere, nor are they really close to any oil installations or major export routes.

The “threat” - if any - would come from other Arab nations protesting Israel’s bombing raids on the Gaza Strip. If Hezbollah gets involved and Israel goes back into Lebanon, or, heaven forbid, Syria, then Iran may have something nasty to say.

And that would certainly worry oil importers, as Iran could easily block the Straits of Hormuz, a major oil shipping corridor.

It hasn’t done it yet, though, and there have been other times when that was threatened. But there hasn’t been a peep from Iran, really. The International Herald Tribune reported this quote from Iran’s supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: “The horrible crime of the Zionist regime in Gaza has once again revealed the bloodthirsty face of this regime from disguise. But worse than this catastrophe is the encouraging silence of some Arab countries who claim to be Muslim.”

That’s not exactly a message of support for Palestine or Hamas.

But let’s get away from all this political hubbub for a second. Let’s look at what’s happening today on Middle Eastern stock exchanges.

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Oct 17 2008

Investing in Energy: New Power Thwarts Russia

News from Asia Times Online has a tiny Caspian county rivalling Mother Russia for regional energy dominance.

In an announcement on October 13, British consultant group Gaffney, Cline & Associates valued Turkmenistan’s natural gas resources for its new Yoloten-Osman field at 4 trillion cubic meters… at least.

On the high side of the estimate, this field could contain as much as 14 trillion cubic meters.

The U.S. consumes 604 billion cubic meters a year, so this is a massive find! It’s also five times the size of Turkmenistan’s previous favorite field.

This new reserve estimate came as a big shock to Russia’s Gazprom (GAZP:Russia), who’d picked up a giant contract with Turkmenistan’s state-owned energy company, Turkmengaz. The contract, signed on July 25 earlier this year, meant Turkmenistan would export 50 billion cubic meters a year to Russia through 2009. Gazprom needs these exports to meet its contracts with Europe, as the company exports about two-thirds of its total production.

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