An area the size of Rhode Island with a population smaller than Pawtucket has caused Russia a whole lot of trouble.

South Ossetia, with only 1,500 square miles of territory and 70,000 “citizens”, claimed independence from Georgia on November 28, 1991. Russia officially recognized the territory’s independence on August 26, 2008, twenty days after Russian troops entered the region to defend South Ossetia’s population from Georgian forces.

Less than a week later, investors in Russia were headed for the hills… And they’re still running.

The EU, currently headed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, is trying to make Russia comply with the ceasefire agreement and withdraw troops. According to a BBC news report, “Some European leaders have already warned there can be ‘no business as usual’ with Russia until the peace plan is fully implemented, and the European Union has suspended talks on a new partnership agreement with Moscow.”

That’s going to be a bit difficult when it comes to Russian energy supplies, however. Russian natural gas accounts for 40% of all EU imports.

And if conflict continues into winter, it truly could be a Cold War between Russia and the EU if the Bear turns off the spigot. That’s why the EU is rushing around the Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean like mad trying to scare up energy supplies and pipeline partners.

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Conspiracy theorists, meet the Nostradamus of Novels: Tom Clancy.

My colleague and fellow analyst, Christian DeHaemer, and I were reading up on the latest news from the South Ossetia conflict between Russia and Georgia. We were passing articles back and forth, trying to determine what was really at the heart of the matter, and how it would affect the markets.

(Turns out, Russian markets aren’t taking it too well… The ruble fell 1.6%.)

Then Chris turns to me and asks, “Have you ever heard of Ghost Recon?”

Back in 2001, military science novelist, Tom Clancy designed a video game called Ghost Recon. Here’s the story’s timeline…

The Russian Democratic Union, consisting of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, is formed in 2007, with the goal of reuniting the former Soviet Union states. Action comes to a head in April 2008, when ultra-nationalists seize total power in Russia and begin invading the Baltics and Georgia. U.S. Special Forces join with rebel factions in Tbilisi, Georgia, but can’t hold back the Russian tide…

Earlier today, in real life, Russian planes flew over the presidential palace in Tbilisi.

This coincidence gave me chills. You can check out the real timeline for the current conflict in this article from Reuters.

The Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, says this conflict, in which Russia is supposedly supporting a separatist faction in Abkazia (an area in South Ossetia), is because Russia wants to control energy routes through the Caucasus.

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One of the biggest business stories of the year has literally been buried by the media — and it could cost you a lucrative opportunity.

On July 9, the China Investment Corp (CIC), the country’s $200-billion sovereign wealth fund, said it will start investing in global equity markets through its overseas asset managers, according to the China Securities Journal.

CIC said it will allocate $250 million to eight different overseas asset managers.

Why Big Media didn’t play this up more prominently is a real joke. CIC is the world’s sixth biggest sovereign wealth fund (SWF). The decision to start actively investing in emerging market equities is a clear indication that emerging markets cannot be ignored.

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An article in Business News Americas may tip off investors to a profit gusher in Mexico.

Their small piece I saw yesterday reported that Mexico could take front and center in an important investment conference this September. If some of the news we expect is actually announced, it could be one of the biggest bombshells to hit Latin oil.

At the Latin Asia Business Forum 08 (LAB08) held in Singapore from September 22-23, Mexican officials could detail their progress on rewriting the legal framework for private investments in state-owned oil.

Mexico’s LAB08 presentations could detail initiatives that would let foreign companies have greater participation in public-works projects for transportation, telecommunications and energy development.

And it’s the energy development that caught our eye. As I write this, a revamp of Mexico’s national oil company is being pushed by President Felipe Calderon.

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