Oct 24 2008

Global Markets: Do the Latin Limbo

Call it a triple-edged sword… or a dog and pony show with cats… or a rain of fire…

Or you can just call it plain old nonsensical. That’s what the past few days have been for Latin American markets. From the Mexican border to the tip of Cape Horn, Chile, markets have tumbled fiercely on the news that both Brazil and Argentina are injecting government into the private investment sector.

Brazil’s government wants its state-controled banks to buy stakes in private financial institutions. The announcement, made on Wednesday, did not include any names, but there are several well-known institutions that could be affected by this:

Banco Bradesco (BBD:NYSE)
Banco Itau Holding Financeira (ITU:NYSE)
Unibanco (UBB:NYSE)

Things may be a little worse in Argentina. President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner announced that the government will take over the $30 billion private pension fund.

She said that Argentina must protect its retirees, and that the country’s constitution requires the president to provide pensions. Last year when the government allowed citizens to chose between privatized pensions and government pensions, only 20% of all people with pensions chose the government’s plan.

In response, markets plummeted.

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Oct 22 2008

Merging Markets: The Buy-Up of Bourses

Consolidation comes in many forms… Buying up assets or operations, buying stakes in operations or companies, merging operations, takeovers, the list goes on and on.

But one thing that has started gaining interest in the mainstream media is exchange consolidation.

Remember last summer when the Chicago Merchantile Exchange bought the Chicago Board of Trade? Or when the Group decided to by Nymex the following March for $11 billion? Or when NYSE Euronext bid for AMEX? When Nasdaq wanted to buy London and the OMX?

These merging markets offer considerable cost savings, a uniform platform, and an ease of cross-transactions that could ultimately create a “flat world” of international trading.

This behavior is starting to trickle into emerging markets as regional stock exchanges gain market capitalization and foreign interest. For example, Wiener Börse, operator of the Vienna stock market, just announced that it would buy the majority stake in the Prague Stock Exchange.

The deal is worth about $264 million, and Wiener Börse beat out other regional rivals, like Deutsche Boerse and the OMX Nordic Exchange. The Warsaw Exchange, Wiener Börse’s main competitor, was kept out of the bidding process because it’s a state-owned business.

But this isn’t the first market Vienna’s gotten its paws on…

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Oct 20 2008

Global Financial Crisis: The Chinese Checkbook?

With cash-strapped companies coming cup-in-hand to their equally cash-strapped governments, the world over is looking for Warren Buffett-sized checkbooks to help ease the credit crunch.

Increasingly, the world is looking to China and its $1.9 trillion in reserves.

Should China whip open its gigantic checkbook to bailout the global financial system?

Does it even want to?

China’s been burned before with its investments in the U.S. financial sector. It has a 9.9% stake ($5 billion) in Morgan Stanley (MS:NYSE) that has been pummeled by the industry-wide downturn. And some Chinese leaders believe that the U.S. and Western Europe should clean up their own mess.

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Oct 17 2008

Investing in Energy: New Power Thwarts Russia

News from Asia Times Online has a tiny Caspian county rivalling Mother Russia for regional energy dominance.

In an announcement on October 13, British consultant group Gaffney, Cline & Associates valued Turkmenistan’s natural gas resources for its new Yoloten-Osman field at 4 trillion cubic meters… at least.

On the high side of the estimate, this field could contain as much as 14 trillion cubic meters.

The U.S. consumes 604 billion cubic meters a year, so this is a massive find! It’s also five times the size of Turkmenistan’s previous favorite field.

This new reserve estimate came as a big shock to Russia’s Gazprom (GAZP:Russia), who’d picked up a giant contract with Turkmenistan’s state-owned energy company, Turkmengaz. The contract, signed on July 25 earlier this year, meant Turkmenistan would export 50 billion cubic meters a year to Russia through 2009. Gazprom needs these exports to meet its contracts with Europe, as the company exports about two-thirds of its total production.

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