Base metals are trending higher today… Copper, Lead, Nickel, Zinc… all green. And each metal is showing signs of bottoming out after nine months of falling prices.

In fact, most base metals have been trading range-bound (meaning practically flat) since the start of 2009. Copper is actually starting to trend higher. Copper is considered an economic canary… When prices fall, economies are in for a slump. When prices rise, economies tend to become stronger.

Why? It all has to do with industrial growth. When economies are strong, they build things like factories, power plants, schools, and other infrastructure. That takes a lot of copper and other base metals.

Which is why, when China announced it could provide another stimulus package - like the $586 billion it issued last year to sustain industrial growth, commodity prices and commodity companies climbed in value.

But just yesterday, China announced it would not boost stimulus spending unless the economy showed it was necessary, and right now, China’s economy seems to be recovering slightly.

Exports are growing again, and China will continue to grow its GDP this year.

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About a month ago, I told you all here that Rio Tinto (RTP:NYSE) was in dire straits… But that was only half the story. The rest I told to the exclusive membership of Taipan Insider. Now, as the mining industry continues to make the news, particularly with China Investment Corp,’s (CIC) announcement that it will focus on natural resource investments - rather than make more investments in the failing sectors of finance and real estate - I want to share the rest with you, because it will lead us up to the current situation.

So here’s your exclusive peek at Taipan Insider…

BHP Billiton (BHP:NYSE) is a leading miner in nearly every metal and mineral in the world, with global operations stretching from Mozambique to Peru… Just look at these statistics:

• 3rd largest copper producer
• 6th largest aluminum producer
• 3rd largest nickel producer
• 4th largest gold producer
• 2nd largest uranium producer
• 2nd largest zinc producer
• 4th largest coal producer

That’s a pretty stacked resume…

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The first sentence of a Reuters article on Brazil’s Carinval is certainly… attention catching:

The 10 million extra government-provided condoms are poised, final touches being put on huge floats depicting Queen Cleopatra and Can-can dancers, and the Barack Obama masks are flying off the shelves.

Would have liked to have known the name of the company making those condoms, eh? That extra 10 million is on top of the 45 million already provided at Carnival.

But even “bigger” news to investors like yourselves is the fact that one float’s dancers were wearing costumes costing $13,000… A PIECE! And this in a massive global financial crisis that has caused even some of the mining towns in surrounding Brazilian states to cancel their parades.

By all estimates, though, folks are spending less money this year, and Brazil expects about a 10% drop in foreign tourists to Carnival.

You wouldn’t know it by the looks of Rio, though. I like to have fun, as you’ve read in these pages before (underground pubs in Slovakia, or crazy futbol matches in Argentina), but some of the videos from this year’s Carnival seem… whew… a bit excessive even for my tastes!

Currently Brazil is a little out of favor with investment analysts. Last week, I told Taipan Insider readers that Citigroup thinks Brazil’s market is in for a slide, and that investors shouldn’t buy in until the Bovespa hits 35,000.

I also told them that I didn’t necessarily agree with Citigroup.

Here’s the thing, though, that everybody does seems to agree on: Countries with strong commodity and cash reserves are going to be great markets on the far side of this financial crisis. The problem is, nobody can time when this crisis will end, or which companies will be around to reap the rewards.

For Brazil, there are a lot of choices, like Companhia Vale (RIO:NYSE), which was just downgraded today despite expanding its iron ore customer base in China…

That means RIO has secured more long-term supply contracts, and that’s a sign of longevity. Clearly something that investors should be looking at if they want to buy shares for the long run in this market.

If you are a member of any of Taipan Publishing Group’s publications, you can read my full article online.

Mining major, Rio Tinto (RTP:NYSE), is in some dire straits… It’s needs cash and needs it now, or it may have trouble paying a $8.9 billion bill come October 2009.

Last year, RTP bought Canadian aluminum company Alcan for $38.9 billion. The company had expected to be able to sell some assets to raise money, but in this environment, it’s not happening quickly enough. So RTP may have to resort to other measures, like cutting capex by $1 billion, and slashing its workforce by 14,000, or 13%.

Not a good situation, so RTP is considering issuing about $4 billion-worth of new stock. Some analysts thing the company should aim higher, to about $6 or $10 billion…

But what does that mean for the value of the company for current shareholders?

Technically, the more shares issued, the lower the value of each share. For current shareholders that’s like taking out a home-equity loan, and some probably aren’t happy about it.

On the other hand, if it can keep RTP from defaulting on a loan, or keep its debt to equity ratios in check, then it might be a necessary evil, particularly if the stock is a long-term position in a buy-and-hold portfolio.

Traders may want to short the heck out of it, and indeed on this news, shares in Australia fell more than 1.5%.

This bad news might smell like an opportunity for some competitors (read BHP Billiton), and I’ve got an article coming out to Taipan Insider readers explaining one possible scenario. Stay tuned…