News broke today that the American-Iranian journalist jailed for spying has been released from prison, her sentence adjusted to a two years suspended term.

Roxana Saberi had been working as a freelance journalist for the BBC and NPR, and had moved to the country in 2003. In January, she was arrested for buying a bottle of wine, and the International Herald Tribune says the charges grew from there.

She was next charged with working without a press card (which had expired in 2006), and finally with spying for the United States. Last month, she was convicted but Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad asked the prosecutor to take a second look at the case.

The International Herald Tribune article on the release quotes Saeed Leylaz, a political analyst in Tehran:

Maybe Iran wants to send a message to Washington with her release that we are powerful. Secondly, that we are flexible, and thirdly, that if we receive the right incentives, we will hold talks as well.

It might win Iran some chips at the table for the ongoing wrestling match over the country’s nuclear program.

The two problems we’ve been focusing on this past week both had false endings.

Last week, we were told that Israel and Gaza were talking about a cease-fire. Now, news reports have more Israeli troops pushing into Gaza City. More than 90,000 people have left their homes, and an estmated 900 people have died in the conflict.

We were also expecting Russia to begin shipping natural gas supplies through Ukraine again this morning. That hasn’t happened either. Russia is now claiming that Ukraine is purposefully blocking supplies. Hundreds of thousands of people have been without gas for a full week.

So, what happens next? Some analysts are saying the Israeli-Palestine conflict could go on for some time. But some Gaza survivors have been without water for four days and the humanitarian situation is worsening by the minute.

Russia will only begin pumping large amounts of natural gas if EU monitors determine that Ukraine isn’t stealing any for domestic consumption. This test of the taps has put the “truce” back at square one.

Natural gas sold on the NYMEX has been dropping for the past five trading days. But natural gas sold on London’s ICE ended higher today. The spread between WTI oil and ICE Brent crude oil is about $6.50, most likely due to these two conflicts.

So Europe is paying more for oil and gas as Russia and Ukraine lock horns, and as Israel continues to pound the Gaza Strip. We’re just starting to get into the middle of winter, too.

Yesterday, I told you Prague was going to hit an overnight low of 15 degreed F. Right now, it’s 9:00pm, and it feels like 12 degrees F.

It’s been announced that Israel is in the process of accepting terms for a truce, and has called a halt to its Gaza operations.

Surprisingly, perhaps, the Tel Aviv stock exchange has had its first down day in seven days. Does this mean that the TASE likes war? Come on! Look at what’s going on in the rest of the world:

Germany: down 1.77%
France: down 1.48%
London: down 2.83%
DJIA: down 2.75% (as I write)

And other markets in Latin America are really slumping today.

What does this mean? It means that war, or lack thereof, is not affecting Israel’s stock market. In other words, “It’s the economy, stupid!”

Big job losses here in the States sent markets spinning today, and not just here in the U.S. This news sent oil dropping, which affected a number of exporting markets, like Norway and Nigeria. It sent metals, both base and precious dropping, too (the exception being platinium), which is a bit unusual. That affects producing countries like Chile and Peru.

It means that investors are going to have to look long and hard at the countries and companies they want to invest in, not just play the news and major events.

I’d better change that to “Some Markets.”

While the U.S. markets are all jittery, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange actually ticked higher today. You wouldn’t know that for all the news, though.

Apparently, folks are worried that this three-day crisis between Israel and Hamas will disrupt oil supplies. Now, the oil exporting countries must be smiling at this… First, Israel and Palestine aren’t exporting oil anywhere, nor are they really close to any oil installations or major export routes.

The “threat” - if any - would come from other Arab nations protesting Israel’s bombing raids on the Gaza Strip. If Hezbollah gets involved and Israel goes back into Lebanon, or, heaven forbid, Syria, then Iran may have something nasty to say.

And that would certainly worry oil importers, as Iran could easily block the Straits of Hormuz, a major oil shipping corridor.

It hasn’t done it yet, though, and there have been other times when that was threatened. But there hasn’t been a peep from Iran, really. The International Herald Tribune reported this quote from Iran’s supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: “The horrible crime of the Zionist regime in Gaza has once again revealed the bloodthirsty face of this regime from disguise. But worse than this catastrophe is the encouraging silence of some Arab countries who claim to be Muslim.”

That’s not exactly a message of support for Palestine or Hamas.

But let’s get away from all this political hubbub for a second. Let’s look at what’s happening today on Middle Eastern stock exchanges.

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