Archive for the 'Frontier Market' Category

Apr 17 2009

Cuba: Back in the Fold

Today, leaders from the 34-member Organization of American States met in Trinidad for the Summit of the Americas.

These are 34 countries with democratically elected officials, so that, of course, doesn’t include Cuba…

Yet.

President Obama recently announced an easing of the travel restrictions between the United States and Cuba, though he didn’t go so far as to lift the trade embargo…

Yet.

But this thaw in relations is being looked at positively by all Latin American nations, and many hope that discussions about the “exiled” country will be much more open and fruitful during this Summit. Cuba herself is open to discussions.

Raul Castro, Cuba’s president, said in a statement made in Venezuela at a conference meant to counter the Summit of the Americas, “We are willing to discuss everything, human rights, freedom of press, political prisoners, everything, everything, everything they want to talk about, but as equals, without the smallest shadow cast on our sovereignty, and without the slightest violation of the Cuban people’s right to self-determination.”

The move to warmer relations is welcomed by both the United States and Cuba, but both acknowledge that it will take a lot of time and mutual respect before Cuba is officially back in the fold.

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Jan 26 2009

A Sign of Normalcy

Let me begin with an amusing image: me, age 11, on a purple skateboard…

And then me, sprawled out on the pavement, thankful my mom forced me to wear a helmet.

I was never very good at skateboarding. My younger brother was, and he always used to show me up. But I always loved watching him do tricks, like ollies and kickflips… 360s off the loading platform behind the school cafeteria.

So I’ve got a bit of a softspot for this sport. Which is why I wanted to share this little article with you from the International Herald Tribune. A skateboarding school is waiting final approval in Kabul, Afghanistan.

It’s an unlikely place for a skateboarding school, but the kids can’t seem to get enough of it.

The idea began as an after-school program, and its main goal is to help bring a bit of normalcy into these kids’ lives. Even girls are allowed to join in the fun, and this one quote, from Maro, a 9-year old girl, really hits home:

“It gives me courage, and once I start skating, I completely forget about my fears.”

And that’s reason enough.

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Jul 30 2008

Frontier Markets Big on the Radar Screen

Hey, Irwin…

Looks like the world is becoming more focused on frontier markets in Africa and the Middle East. Several new ETFs have popped up, making access to these markets so much easier for US investors.

They are Vectors Gulf States ETF (MES:NYSE), the Market Vectors Africa ETF (AFK:NYSE), the PowerShares MENA Frontier Countries ETF (PMNA:Nasdaq) and Claymore’s Frontier Markets ETF (FRN:NYSE). (Note: The FRN includes investments in a number of other frontier markets, including Latin American and Eastern European countries.)

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Jun 27 2008

Friday Snapshot 6/27/08: Taipan Emerging Market Index Gets Caught in Down Draft and Falls 30.7%

With the markets getting crushed, it should come as no surprise that our Taipan Emerging Market index gets caught in the down draft. For the week ending 6/27/08, the index dropped 30.7%.

 

Key
ALL ORDINARIES IDX (ASX: ^AORD) Australia
BSE SENSEX (Bombay: ^BSESN) India
IBOVESPA SAO PAULO (^BVSP) Brazil
EGYPT CMA GENL INDX (Cairo: ^CCSI) Egypt
HANG SENG INDEX (HKSE: ^HSI) Hong Kong
COMPOSITE INDEX (Jakarta: ^JKSE) Jakarta
COMPOSITE INDEX (Kuala Lumpur: ^KLSE) Kuala Lumpar
KOSPI Composite Index (KSE: ^KS11) South Korea
MERVAL BUENOS AIRES (Buenos Aires: ^MERV) Argentina
IPC (Mexico: ^MXX) Mexico
NZX 50 INDEX GROSS (NZSE: ^NZ50) New Zealand
IGBM (Madrid: ^SMSI) Spain
TEL-AV TASE-100 IND (^TA100) Israel
TSEC weighted index (Taiwan: ^TWII) Taiwan
SSE Composite Index (Shanghai: 000001.SS) Shanghai
iShares MSCI South Africa Index (EZA) South Africa
RTSI INDEX (RUS: RTS.RS) Russia
ISHARES MSCI THAILAN (NYSEArca: THD) Thailand
iShares MSCI Turkey Invest Mkt Index (TUR) Turkey

 

The herd mentality of the major trading centers will usually prevail — regardless of the potential of individual emerging markets. You can see this with oil’s new highs triggering another sell-off. Yesterday, the Dow hit a two-year low. Citibank now seems like it will crumble and those reverberations are felt everywhere.

There is a bright spot, however…

Our biggest winner this week is the ISHARES MSCI THAILAN (NYSEArca: THD). This follows our trend for the past three weeks of Asian markets dominating the index.

Thailand has been on a tear of late. More and more major corporations are setting up factories there as China becomes too expensive.

Since January of this year, new manufacturing plants in Thailand have been announced by the likes of Japanese food giant, Ajinomoto Co.; the UK-based Plastics Capital; Toyota is building a new 150,000-square-foot diesel engine plant; Canon is doubling capacity for a printer plant outside of Hanoi; and Hanesbrands, the underwear maker, is setting up two new factories in Vietnam.

At the same time, Vietnam’s inflation hit 25.2% last month — one of the highest in our index.

Here’s my point: Vietnam has pretty much the same story to tell as other markets in our index. Some have higher inflation than others. Some haul in money from feeding the global commodity boom instead of manufacturing things. Yet, they are all dragged down by the horrible and terrifying stories making headlines in the U.S. and other industrialized countries.

All I could say at this point is that you have to wait this out. Is this a good time to double down? Very possible. Regardless, the long-term prospects of emerging markets remains quite strong.

Have a great weekend.

–Irwin Greenstein

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