Archive for the 'East Asia' Category

Jul 09 2008

This Inflation Buster Could Turn into a Pay Day

Two Asian newspapers revealed that China’s fight against inflation could pay off in the immediate future. If so, the SSE Composite Index (Shanghai: 000001.SS) Shanghai is the place for you to be.

Both The Shanghai Daily and The Standard reported that as early as this week the Chinese government could issue new numbers to show it has finally reined in inflation. The news could send the Shanghai Composite Index back up. In fact, in our June 11 issue, we thought it was a good idea to double down on the index while it was still in a trough.

The Asian newspapers quoted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China as saying that the country’s inflation could peak in 2009 and then decline.

While the bank also predicted that stock markets could continue to suffer through 2011, our guess is that any government reporting good inflation numbers has got to be considered a superstar.

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Jul 07 2008

What Starbucks Didn’t Tell You

When Starbucks (NasdaqGS: SBUX) announced on July 1 it was closing 600 U.S stores, Big Media played it up with an apocalyptic gusto. The Starbucks meltdown was portrayed as divine retribution for our yuppie excess — the Angel of Doom descending on every street corner in America where BMW owners doubled parked for their $5 White Chocolate Mocha Frappuccinos.

Take a look at the chart, and you’ll see that SBUX looks like a massive cardiac arrest…

 

But there’s a much bigger part of the story that, in fact, Starbucks played down. Like a good corporate lap dog, Big Media ignored this important piece of news — depriving investors of a key piece of market intelligence that could make Starbucks a good long-term play.

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Jul 02 2008

Will Emerging Markets Topple the King of Beers?

Budweiser and Busch are as American as camo seat covers in a F-150.

Yet a hostile offer by InBev SA (Brussels:INB.BR) on Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD) is about to show us that the star-spangled King of Beers is up for play because it ignored emerging markets.

When you look at the dynamics behind the InBev bid, it’s important to see America as a diminished player. The headlines tell you that the economy is dismal. What Big Media rarely tells you is that smaller, developing economies are kicking our butt. American companies that count strictly on the U.S. for revenues are destined for the rustbelt of the future — or a foreign buyout.

Analysts have been badgering A-B for years that it relies too heavily on the U.S. — one of the slowest growing beer markets in the world. A-B has buried its head in the sand as InBev and other competitors have pushed into high-growth emerging markets.

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Jun 25 2008

Run with the CAT in Emerging Markets

Ask yourself this…

If the U.S. housing market is at rock bottom, how can heavy-equipment maker Caterpillar, Inc. grow its sales by 13%?

The answer is simple: emerging markets.

In April, Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) announced surprisingly strong results and a 13% surge in Q1 profits. Caterpillar’s work-around to the U.S. housing crunch is an aggressive push into emerging markets.

Countries such as China, India and Russia contributed to the company’s 30% leap in international sales. By contrast, North American sales rose a paltry 4%. Sales and revenues outside North America represented 58% of total sales and revenues in Q1 — up from 53% of the total a year ago.

Naturally, Caterpillar is increasing its commitment to emerging markets. In addition to China and India, the company is focused on the Commonwealth of Independent States — or the former Soviet Bloc.

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