Archive for the 'Currency' Category

Sep 16 2008

Financial Mayhem in US Barely Grazes Europe

Here in Vienna, the only english channel I get is CNN, and I can’t tell you how shocked I was yesterday hearing how the Dow plunged more than 500 points on news that Lehman Brothers is no more.

Asian markets fell just as hard, and investors everywhere are panicking.

Here in Europe, though, markets aren’t reacting as sharply today, though still red for the second day straight. The biggest economies with the most ties to US markets, like Germany, the UK, and yes, Austria. Also, Norway is getting hit hard, because oil prices are dropping quickly as fears of depressed demand keep prices below $100.

What really has me worried, though, is the US dollar. Especially since I’m still here in Vienna. This, of course, has commodity-price ramifications as well. The Fed is meeting once again, and we’re in the “perfect storm” that may have Bernanke - who looked like he was on some really good drugs today - cutting rates to try and stop the bleeding.

That’s great, folks… Let’s try to print our way out of this yet again and put more of the burden on taxpayers after we’ve pretty much assumed responsibility to pay for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

I guess I’m a little miffed cause everything is going to cost me more here… at least in Vienna. Once I get to the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary, I’ll be doing a little better.

So far that is. We’ll see how the currencies move today.

I’ll be crossing into the Czech Republic today, heading for the picturesque Cesky Krumlov and then on to Prague. I’ll chat with you then, and let you know how much my dinner cost!

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Aug 15 2008

Dollar Turn-around Has Analysts Questioning Emerging Markets

When the U.S. economy fell off a cliff, a bunch of investors fled to the “safety” of booming emerging markets, like China and Brazil.

Turned out to be a good bet for a while, until our credit crisis became a global disease… and even stellar markets had their corrections.

But now, on the slightest bump up in the dollar, some analysts are now questioning whether emerging markets is the best place for your cash. Some say that U.S. stocks are a better bet than foreign stocks.

What’s really going on is that other major currencies, like the euro and the British pound, are being hit by recession fears and the possibility of more bank write-downs.

The dollar hasn’t really risen that much on its own yet. We’re still seeing poor housing numbers and sky-high inflation. There have been bright spots in the U.S. economy, and I won’t deny that things are starting to look better, but a major shift back to holding only U.S. assets in your portfolio is a big mistake.

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Jul 14 2008

China’s Next Big Oil Play?

One of the biggest business stories of the year has literally been buried by the media — and it could cost you a lucrative opportunity.

On July 9, the China Investment Corp (CIC), the country’s $200-billion sovereign wealth fund, said it will start investing in global equity markets through its overseas asset managers, according to the China Securities Journal.

CIC said it will allocate $250 million to eight different overseas asset managers.

Why Big Media didn’t play this up more prominently is a real joke. CIC is the world’s sixth biggest sovereign wealth fund (SWF). The decision to start actively investing in emerging market equities is a clear indication that emerging markets cannot be ignored.

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May 05 2008

Emerging Markets: Living Well is the Best Revenge

“I’m as mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore!”

That outburst is enshrined in movie history. It’s from the 1976 satire “Network,” which went on to win four Academy Awards.

The now-famous line gave fire to a diatribe by a news anchor named Howard Beale with declining ratings. Played by the great Peter Finch, he urges Americans to yell it out their windows during a dazzling lightning storm.

Beale rants “Everybody knows things are bad. It’s a depression. Everybody’s out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel’s work, banks are going bust, shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter. Punks are running wild in the street and there’s nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there’s no end to it. We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat, and we sit watching our TV’s while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that’s the way it’s supposed to be.” Continue Reading »

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