Archive for the 'Commodities' Category

Jan 13 2009

Mounting Tensions: Ukraine and Gaza

The two problems we’ve been focusing on this past week both had false endings.

Last week, we were told that Israel and Gaza were talking about a cease-fire. Now, news reports have more Israeli troops pushing into Gaza City. More than 90,000 people have left their homes, and an estmated 900 people have died in the conflict.

We were also expecting Russia to begin shipping natural gas supplies through Ukraine again this morning. That hasn’t happened either. Russia is now claiming that Ukraine is purposefully blocking supplies. Hundreds of thousands of people have been without gas for a full week.

So, what happens next? Some analysts are saying the Israeli-Palestine conflict could go on for some time. But some Gaza survivors have been without water for four days and the humanitarian situation is worsening by the minute.

Russia will only begin pumping large amounts of natural gas if EU monitors determine that Ukraine isn’t stealing any for domestic consumption. This test of the taps has put the “truce” back at square one.

Natural gas sold on the NYMEX has been dropping for the past five trading days. But natural gas sold on London’s ICE ended higher today. The spread between WTI oil and ICE Brent crude oil is about $6.50, most likely due to these two conflicts.

So Europe is paying more for oil and gas as Russia and Ukraine lock horns, and as Israel continues to pound the Gaza Strip. We’re just starting to get into the middle of winter, too.

Yesterday, I told you Prague was going to hit an overnight low of 15 degreed F. Right now, it’s 9:00pm, and it feels like 12 degrees F.

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Jan 12 2009

Russia: Gas Monopoly Flexes Muscles… Again

In last Thursday’s Taipan Insider, I talked about the current dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas supplies.

Since this latest row began, supplies to Eastern Europe have been nearly non-existant. And major Western European countries were starting to feel the pinch, too. Some countries were even forced to dip into reserves, this being the onset of the bitter winter season.

Now, Russia says it will resume supplying natural gas tomorrow morning. This is only after a monitoring deal has been agreed to by both parties and mediated by the European Union.

Still, it may be a while, reports the BBC, before supplies return to normal.

The overnight low temperature in Prague, Czech Republic, tonight is 15 degrees fahrenheit.

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Dec 29 2008

Middle East Mayhem Mires Markets

I’d better change that to “Some Markets.”

While the U.S. markets are all jittery, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange actually ticked higher today. You wouldn’t know that for all the news, though.

Apparently, folks are worried that this three-day crisis between Israel and Hamas will disrupt oil supplies. Now, the oil exporting countries must be smiling at this… First, Israel and Palestine aren’t exporting oil anywhere, nor are they really close to any oil installations or major export routes.

The “threat” - if any - would come from other Arab nations protesting Israel’s bombing raids on the Gaza Strip. If Hezbollah gets involved and Israel goes back into Lebanon, or, heaven forbid, Syria, then Iran may have something nasty to say.

And that would certainly worry oil importers, as Iran could easily block the Straits of Hormuz, a major oil shipping corridor.

It hasn’t done it yet, though, and there have been other times when that was threatened. But there hasn’t been a peep from Iran, really. The International Herald Tribune reported this quote from Iran’s supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: “The horrible crime of the Zionist regime in Gaza has once again revealed the bloodthirsty face of this regime from disguise. But worse than this catastrophe is the encouraging silence of some Arab countries who claim to be Muslim.”

That’s not exactly a message of support for Palestine or Hamas.

But let’s get away from all this political hubbub for a second. Let’s look at what’s happening today on Middle Eastern stock exchanges.

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Dec 06 2008

The Sun Rises over Buenos Aires

Containers arrive at Puerto Madero, Buenos Aires.For the second time this trip, I’ve seen the sunrise in a foreign country.

This time, my over-night bus was passing through Suipacha, an agricutural area about three hours outside of Buenos Aires. There were flowing wheat fields and young corn growing everywhere, and in between these crops were thousands of head of cattle. It was a farmer’s paradise, and companies have flocked to this area for generations: Agrimex, Coincer, and Cargill.

Argentina is, after all one of the world’s largest exporters of wheat, and it’s also home to some of the best steaks in the world.

I’ve yet to have one, but I’m sure I’ll be accomodated at dinner tonight.

But I’d like to talk a little bit about Buenos Aires. I knew we were getting close to the city when big stores, like Wal-Mart, and Easy (the BA version of Home Depot) started popping up on the side of the road. And then came the fashion billboards…

And then came the container stacks.

Buenos Aires is - quite literally - the mouth of South America. It’s situated on the Punta Indio Channel, a wide delta of sorts that serves as the main port of all of South America. Imports, exports, agricultural commodities, automobiles…

You name it, it passes through here.

And unlike Santiago, Buenos Aires has retained a bit of its Old World Charm, with European architecture and lovely city parks, it will be a pleasure to walk around the city later.

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