Oct 08 2008

Black Holes and Death Stars

Posted by Sara Nunnally

Major markets around the world are being sucked into the black hole that is the U.S. economic crisis.

There are those that say we need to share the blame, and yes, there are banks in the UK and in Germany, and other Western economies, that have wandered down the same path and ended up in the same bramble bush… But the U.S. financial system has really become the black hole of the global economic universe.

Just look at all the cash that was thrown into the system: $12.5 billion injected into Citigroup by the government of Singapore and the Kuwait Investment Authority; China Investment Corp. paided $5 billion for a 9.9% stake in Morgan Stanley; Merrill Lynch got $6.6 billion from Korea…

And that doesn’t include the investments in other institutions across the pond, like the investments in Barclays by Singapore’s Temasek and the Qatar Investment Authority, or the Credit Suisse, Standard Charter, and UBS investments from SWFs around the world.

As you can imagine, these folks aren’t happy that their investments have all but disappeared. They’re not likely to make any similar investments in the near future, either.

And that leaves a gigantic wound in the financial machine… A black hole that continues to suck investor’s cash down a never-ending drain.

Thought the Dow would hold at 10,000? It didn’t.

Think the $700 billion “Death Star” bailout will contain the problem to just the U.S.? It won’t.

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Oct 06 2008

Global Market Meltdown

Posted by Sara Nunnally

These are the days when four-letter words buzz like flies on a corpse.

I spent this morning in a meeting with my fellow analysts to discuss what the next best investment opportunity will be.

I have to say, the mood was positively dismal once we heard the Dow dropped below 10,000. The buzz still hasn’t died, and I know some of my colleagues are still frantically sending messages on their Blackberries.

Yes, folks, it’s another record down day here in the U.S.

You can gawk, you can cry, you can yell and scream…

Or you can grab risk by the horns and snap up some really great deals. It’ll mean finding those obscure markets, or those beaten so severely that shares are selling well below the value of the company.

And that means that you can make some serious money down the road.

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Oct 03 2008

International Travel: Evil Technology and Pandora’s Box

Posted by Sara Nunnally

Okay… Now that I’m officially back in Baltimore - home from my two-week whirlwind of a tour that took me through five different countries and economies - I feel like I can be honest with you.

I don’t think all this growth is a good idea. I mean, when you’re in an emerging market, you expect certain things, like second-class toilets and cash-only bars. You don’t expect evil technology to throw you under a bus, or down an escalator, as was in my case.

I was minding my own business, making my way through what appeared to be a run-down train station from the late 1970’s. By the way, switching trains enroute to your destination is about a common as crossing the road here in the States.

Anyway, I’m with a group of tourists headed from the lower platform to the arrivals area where I’ll find out where my next train is leaving from. Everything was running smoothly. There are two escalators headed to arrivals: one is moving up and the other is stationary. I think it’s broken.

So while a group of folks step on the up escalator, I decide to get a hike in and head up the stationary side.

Big mistake, and I’ve got the bruises to prove it.

I wasn’t alone in my decision… Two fellows climed ahead of me. I had made it to the middle of the “steps” when the first guy gets to the top and triggers a sensor. Yes, this escalator was one of those new-fangled modern, energy efficient killers that starts working once someone crosses the fancy light sensor at the top.

Of course, this side of the escalator is headed in the opposite direction I am.

A battle ensues between little ol’ me, with my massive pack on my back, and the evil escalator. A mere three steps from the top, my legs are burning, and I’m stretching forward to reach the top.

Unfortunately, my heavy bag shifts forward, and I stumble onto my hands and knees like a drunk trying to hail a cab.

Not pretty.

And to top it all off, I’m so friggin’ tired, I can’t get back up! I end up riding the escalator all the way down to get on the right side, which I should have just done in the first place.

You get my point, don’t you? Emerging markets shouldn’t just plop some new technology into old surroundings. They should warn you, or something. I much prefer the low expectations of places like, say, underground bars with unusual names.

Take the Alligator, for example.

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Oct 01 2008

U.S. Economy: Ripple Effect Rocks Europe

Posted by Sara Nunnally

With banks dropping like flies here in the U.S., one must accept that this shake-up cannot be contained within U.S. borders.

Indeed, banks in Western Europe are already following U.S. institutions into the dark abyss, and now the European Union must decide if some “bailouts” will be allowed. For example, the EU is now reviewing its decision to allow a $7 billion bailout of German bank West LB.

And some regions are looking to preemptively bail out its banks.

Ireland has just announced that it will guarantee all deposits, bonds and debts for the country’s six largest banks for the next two years.

It’s a controversial decision that some say will give these Irish banks - with international branches - an edge over other banks. But it’s also in line with what the European Commission has been wanting… Well, sort of.

The EC wants banks to, in essence, hoard cash. Like a rainy day fund, just for times like these.

According to the Commission, banks should put away more cash in order to be able to cover its riskier investments.

Of course, that makes sense, but I don’t think a lot of banks will be able to pull that off in this type of environment. In fact, this may have a negative effect. If banks take more liquidity out of the markets, there will be less money to lend, and less revenue for the bottom line.

So should governments step in and foot the bill, or should the responsibility rest solely on the shoulders of the financial institutions?

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