Nov
12
2008
Late October, Brazil and Argentina announced that their governments would buy up private assets in financial markets.
Brazil’s plan would allow its state-controlled banks (Banco do Brasil and Caixa Economica Federal) to buy stakes in private financial institutions. Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner announced that the government would take over the $30 billion private pension fund.
These announcements pushed Latin American markets well into the red, but they also knocked Spain’s Ibex index off 184 points, or 2%.
That should come as no surprise. Spain and Latin America have many economic ties, and some Spanish companies do so much business across the pond that 29% of net profits come from that region.
So when news of nationalization hit last week, naturally Spanish markets shuddered… With good reason.
Just look at Bolivia and Venezuela, both controlled by heavily nationalistic leaders.
Venezuela has had three major blackouts this year. Some areas spent more than two weeks without power at a time. Bolivia continues to buy up local and international stakes in its natural gas pipeline infrastructure, but it’s been shipping less than 50% of its contracted amount of natural gas to Argentina since September.
Problems like this led to a severe power crisis last summer, and forced Argentina to buy energy from Brazil.
So the question is… Will government intervention result in protection from global markets, or will pensioner and investors alike be holding worthless papers and wondering where all their money went?
And how will markets in both Latin America and Spain respond?
Continue Reading »
Nov
07
2008
Surprising news out of Argentina today: Ternium (TX:NYSE), a steel maker with operations in Argentina and Mexico, reported a 15% rise in net income (year on year).
But here’s the thing. That 15% rise is overshadowed by the fact that its net income of $247 million is only half that from the previous quarter. The main reason for this drop? Lower net foreign exchange results.
This wierd fluctuation is seen in the company’s EBITA. This figure grew 101% year over year in the third quarter, but is down 11% from the second quarter.
Next quarter, the company expects further contraction in income, which doesn’t bode well.
These kinds of earnings reports are going to become more prevalent, I think… So long as major currencies continue to seesaw back and forth.
You see, most international exporting companies have to hedge themselves against their own currencies. But with the global mayhem shoving some denominations higher and knee-capping others, it’s obvious that some companies are going to be left holding the short end of the stick.
Argentina’s in that bracket.
Continue Reading »
Nov
05
2008
The world’s head was spinning faster than Linda Blair’s; its markets falling quicker than a dead body off the Jersey bridge; the wailing was louder than Jamie Lee Curtis’s famous screams in Halloween.
Look at the carnage since August 4:
Dow down 15%
Nasdaq down 23%
FTSE down 13%
DAX down 17%
But to ulitmate lows? Let’s look again:
Dow down 31%
Nasdaq down 35%
FTSE down 32%
DAX down 37%
Asian markets were hit even harder: The Nikkei has dropped 30% since August 4, but had dropped as far as 47% at its ultimate lows. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong was the worst performer of major, though. It has fallen an amazing 36% since August 4, and a whopping 53% at its ultimate lows.
Not even India’s Bombay exchange has fallen as far as the Hang Seng.
Continue Reading »
Nov
03
2008
For those of you that remember me from my days as editor for Material Profits, the commodity-based newsletter that has since evolved into Christian DeHaemer’s BreakAway Investor, you will also remember that I had quite the “green crush.”
My first international trip for Taipan Publishing Group was to a tiny island off the coast of Denmark called Samso. It had won a contest to participate in a ten-year race to become 100% renewable energy-based.
This year is the tenth year, and the tiny island has been more than successful. It now sells electricity back to the mainland.
So you can say that I was duly enthralled, and my model portfolio was packed full of alternative energy companies… most of which performed extremely well. (To be fair, some did perform poorly.)
My recommendations didn’t make me many friends…
I remember fondly the insults slung via email calling me a leftist treehugger that should just stick to investment picks instead of researching and recommending pie-in-the-sky renewable energy companies.
Well, as climate change and energy independence have headlined a number of events during the past two years of presidential campaigning, I’m happy to see alternative energy back in the investment ring.
Surprisingly, many top-notch European companies see the U.S. as a major growth region for the renewable energy business, and they are coming over in droves to set up shop.
Let’s take a look at just one of the technologies that’s already being employed around the world: wind power.
Continue Reading »